THE FUTURE OF UKRAINE AND THE AMERICAN EMPIRE. TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING IN ALASKA

Foreword

As the Russians continue to advance and gain territory moving further west, the defensive positions that the Ukrainians will be fighting from  are much less effective than the defensive positions they have been fighting for.

This is all happening at a time when the Ukrainian army is unravelling. And there is sort of two dimensions to this. One is the material dimension: they have a shortage of shells,  armored vehicles, and drones. As for the balance of infantry on the ground, it decisively favors the Russians. 

But then there is the psychological dimension: the Ukrainians are not simply getting desperate and deeply depressed because they are having trouble on the battlefield but what kind of support can they expect from the Trump administration  going forward? The US pipeline is going to dry up very soon and the Europeans filling the void is just nonsense. That is not going to happen.

So, Ukrainian fighters are going to say to themselves, "What is the purpose of dying in a war that we are going to lose anyway? Why should we continue to fight? This is a lost cause."

Current situation

The gap between the Russians and the Ukrainians  keeps growing and cannot  be reduced.  The Russians are preparing with a huge amount of troops in the rear and they are even expanding the front lines further thinning out and taking advantage of Ukrainian weakness and when a major crack comes  the Russians will be in a position to really take huge advantage of it and try to unravel the entire front line. They are able to overwhelm the Ukrainians at every level in the sky, on the land, with tanks, with armor.

The Russians from February 2022 have rationalized things in truly impressive ways in terms of raising troops, training troops, employing troops, and then in terms of spinning up the industrial base. And looking at the tactics and the strategy on the battlefield  they have  minimized the number of Russian casualties. The Russians have not been engaged in human wave tactics.

Russia rejects an  unconditional ceasefire

Trump is talking about unconditional ceasefire which does not really address the political issues: primarily the neutrality issue. There is no question that the Trump administration has pursued a chaotic policy toward Ukraine and toward Russia. The question of getting a peace agreement is a very simple one. The Russians have set down a set of terms as of last June 14th.

The main elements of the deal that they spelled out are non-negotiable. Period. And the West simply refuse to accept those terms: what it talks about is a ceasefire. The Russians have said no ceasefire until a meaningful peace agreement at least in principle if not in writing is reached.  And if the West does not talk about the terms that Putin has laid out, there is no point in talking. Putin is playing chess, not checkers!

For the Russians, what is happening in Ukraine is an existential threat. The problem is that most people in the West cannot get this through their thick skulls. They just do not understand that this is not about territorial grabs:  NATO on Russia's  doorstep in Ukraine is an existential threat and the Russians therefore came up with a series of demands that are non-negotiable.

And until US accept those demands, the conflict is not going to be settled peacefully. It is going to be settled on the battlefield. And the end result is a frozen conflict  which could restart at any time.

Western stubbornness and obsession

Many people believe that a Russian victory is an existential threat to the West. Smarter people don't believe that for one second. Surely, it is a devastating defeat psychologically given how much  the West invested in this war. So what are people in the West going to do? Are they going to accept that sometimes defeat happens  or are they just not going to quit?  And if they just don't quit, what does that mean?

Sometimes people say:“We cannot afford to lose this war because if we lose this war liberal democracy in the West is doomed”.  Smarter people  do not believe that the end of the West will follow if the Russians regain territory that they have controlled for most of their modern history. This is an absurd idea.

But there is a difference between the United States and Europe. The United States does have the Atlantic. It is far away. US is a single country. It is much richer. It is far more powerful. It has many other issues around the world that it has to take care of. And it is not obsessively focused on Russia in the way Europe is.

The United States will eventually say: "Well, sometimes wars do not go well. This one did not.” What   is Europe  going to do is a completely different question. Germany is building up its forces and if Europe continues in that direction, its future is going to be bleak because its economies are going to continue to buckle under the strain of all of this. Energy costs in Britain are four times greater than they are in the United States.  The oil and gas flows from Russia have now been interrupted and Europe is going to deepen its underlying problems and  find it in a very very deep crisis. Eventually some kind of sanity will prevail?

How about the future of Ukraine?

The Russians will not take all of Ukraine which will end up in a western Ukraine- rump state but Ukraine remains. But what is going on in the Baltic about Kaliningrad  and the possibility of surrounding it with NATO forces sends shivers up spine. Do not these people understand that they are playing with fire?

That is an indicator of how crazy the West may behave once this war comes to an end   getting a frozen conflict. That  is the last stage of madness.   Getting into such a war there  will mean that what has been through in Ukraine is going to look like  an overture to an opera with a very dramatic outcome.

The United States have to adjust to this multipolar world. They have to make priorities. They can't be everywhere at all times. So  if this war comes to an end now what will this actually mean for NATO?  It  could end up in some weaker form. But surely this is a wider collapse of the European security architecture given how much the Europeans have invested in it. Europe threw everything in gambling on this idea of defeating Russia.

Is the United States ending its deep connection to Europe?

If the trend is indeed that the United States is gradually ending its deep connection to Europe, which it had since the Second World War, then  that is an epic momentous event at least for people in Europe. It is like  the Roman emperor writing to the British cities telling them in 400 AD that they must look to their own defence.

The United States has a different history. It beats to a different drum. It will remain  a superpower. It is protected by its oceans. It has an enormous economy. It can adjust to this. But Europe needs to think very hard and work very  hard to adjust to this change. And Europe is not doing that at all at the moment.

The United States

The idea behind Ukraine in NATO was : “Let's dethrone Putin. Let's regime change Russia then we can rape it, strip it of its resources, divide it into smaller parts”. That is now the plan for Iran. Trump, who just a few month ago actually spoke very rationally about what was in America's interest and frankly in the interest of the West is now simply saying what the powerful billionaire class of donors want him to say and do and they want war in the Middle East.

They want this to continue. They want to destroy Iran. This sounds eerily familiar to the lead-up to Iraq. Only this time the stakes are far higher. Iran is not isolated. Any conflict there could draw in Russia (the Russians are not going to tolerate the destruction of Iran) and even China indirectly. It wouldn't be at a regional fight but the potential ignition of a much larger fire.

The dollar is no longer the reserve currency

There is something else: the western finance system is debt-based but foreign investment is not coming into America anymore, nobody wants its treasuries. The dollar is no longer the reserve currency. Gold is. That is part of the problem.

Secondly, the old weaponized system  used in the United States  to bully others  through the International Monetary Fund and  the World Bank does not work any more. All of these institutions from Bretton Woods onward were designed to bully others into doing what US wanted them to do.

Nobody wants US debt. They want to de-dollarize because when they do business in dollars, they lose. And  the new systems being set up by BRICS are resource-based. In particular, China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which is a financial system for processing RMB cross-border payments, functions as an alternative to systems like SWIFT for international financial transactions.  This is the part most Americans are missing.

The world is building a parallel financial system, one that doesn't need the dollar. When that tipping point comes, US won't just lose influence. US will feel it directly in its economy, markets, and daily lives.

Trump

In many countries around the world, particularly in African Countries  that have gold mines, they are basically concluding US will never get out from under the debt burden that it has.  So US will just nationalize it. And the Chinese, the Russians and the Iranians and others will say: “ Fine, do it! Join us and get out from underneath this oppressive system.” So Trump is now lashing out at the insistence of the billionaires that funded him and brought him into office.

Trump has no chance of success at all. It is a dead end. But he is somebody who still thinks he is living in 1991. And his frame of reference is the late 1950s, early 1960s. So he dismisses out of hand countries like Iran or India or Pakistan or  any number of places in the world as irrelevant, as though they all have to do what he says because if they do not, US will punish them with tariffs. This is backfiring badly on US  heading to a serious financial crisis in the United States and the West.

And the irony is it is self-inflicted. Decades of financialization, outsourcing, and endless wars have hollowed out the foundation of Western strength. Now the consequences are catching up: US ballot box is broken. Everything that Trump is doing are things that Biden would have done or did do, making them worse. The parties  are now in the hands of the multi-billionaires that decide policy.

And right now policy says US has to go to war. It is deeply concerning to hear how normalized this mindset has become. Conflict as a tool of policy regardless of readiness or consequences. But the reality is America's military and fiscal capacity are both stretched thin. This is not 1991 anymore.

Is the United States ready for war?

It is not possible militarily. US cannot do it. Already overstretched, overwhelmed, and  broke financially US is not going to scare anybody or threaten anybody into investing in its country by buying treasuries. American people do not understand intricacies of the financial system but they figured out it does not matter who you vote for, you get the same kind of fool and maniac.

The point is that this is not rational anymore and he does not seem to care because he does not  understand the true state of affairs. He does not understand that US does not have limitless military power. He does not understand that the world does not  desperately needs US whose market is not the only game in town.

China is the principal market. It is going to be the principal market for a very long time. And everybody forgets that for 2,000 years, China was the richest country in the world. China is simply regaining the position that it once had. Just go to the Shanghai Gold Exchange - SGE (China's primary platform offering trading, clearing, and vaulting services for physical gold, silver, and platinum, and also running an international board to attract offshore investment and promote the use of the Chinese yuan) or, as already pointed out, resort  to the CIPS   instead of the US SWIFT system not anymore needed.

And people more and more are doing business in their own currency. So the bottom line is his gut instinct, which tells him the way to win an argument is to bully your opponent, but it is wrong. That kind of thinking might have worked in a boardroom, but it is dangerous in geopolitics. And many are planning a future without the West.

Are the ballots still significant? Is China the enemy?

Americans are increasingly convinced that the ballot box does not work. Now, that is very dangerous. And to finally conclude that voting is an utterly pointless affair, means that US is a facade, a fraud. When people lose faith in the vote, that is the final warning sign in any republic. It is not just discontent: it is disillusionment.

And history tells  that it can spiral quickly, if left undressed,  into a financial crisis and  to provoke a wider war with Russia and China as well as Iran. That makes no sense at all. US is not prepared for that, missing the missile stocks, the munitions factories, the production base.

And yet, the popular propaganda  coming out of the US administration is: “China is the real enemy. They harmed us. We lost our production base to China”. Well, China did not rob US of its manufacturing base. That was the CEO class and their shareholders. They shipped it overseas. They were the ones that destroyed America's middle class.

US often talks about foreign threats, but much of the damage was done from within. The

offshoring, the bailouts, the debt spirals, those decisions came from boardrooms in Congress, not Beijing or Moscow. But that plays well. How much longer will it play? But that is the sort of thing people are resorting to to try and hold things together.

Smarter people's discovery

Smarter  people do not think it will work and are beginning to wonder if the Epstein affair is going to bring President Trump down. Smarter people are discovering something that they discovered in France in the 1780s: that their aristocratic class, in our case the top 1% that's really ruling the country, is unworthy of that role.

They are decayed. They have no business governing people. And they do so exclusively because they control the financial system. These people are financial capitalists. They have made billions through financializing the system. Transaction fee after transaction fee . But what does that produce for the American people? Nothing. It impoverishes, it destroys their jobs. So that is where US is now and where the French were in 1789.

A lot of people have believed in Trump. They thought he was different. But they discovered he is exactly like the people they  voted against. That hits hard because it is the betrayal people feel that is fuelling so much of today's unrest. When leaders promise change but deliver more of the same, trust collapses. US is reaching a point where the American system either reforms itself or risk being upended by its own citizens, just like in 1789 France. US still has some  time, but that window is closing.

Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska for Ukraine talks

In this meeting in  Alaska on August 15, Trump  had a strong interest in coming to some sort of agreement with Russia averting any conflict between US and Russia. The Russians have always been receptive to the idea of talking to US. But it was not the Russians who refused  to speak to Biden or his administration. Far from it. Biden did say: "No, we will not talk to you. We are morally superior to you. You are bad and because you are bad, we can't talk to you”. Trump came into office and the Russians made it very clear that they were quite willing to talk to him. However, the question is, what was the purpose of the meeting? The Russians are not fools. They know how Trump thinks and behaves. Trump is very short-term in his horizon and thinks in terms of  “I have got to get a win. Well, you know, I got to be the guy that wins. I have to dominate this”.

They know that. So, the real question is why were they bothering to meet with him? The Russian position is very well known. It is not going to change. But Putin was willing to look at a larger strategic picture. And the Russians, before the intervention  in February of 2022,  sent proposals to US about the security architecture of Europe.

In Alaska the Russians were interested in talking not only about the security architecture in Europe but also in the Middle East and Southwest Asia because the US are now busy on their southern border along with the Israelis trying to create havoc and chaos in  Azerbaijan and elsewhere.  Putin was interested in the larger strategic picture while Trump was interested in a meeting making him “the hero who  made peace."

The problem is, the Russians are substantive, they were looking for a real outcome:  the larger strategic architecture  that is of greatest interest to them because  from the Russian standpoint this war in Ukraine is grinding to a very slow halt and when it ends it is going to end on their terms anyway. So there was not  a lot to negotiate.

Conclusion

The failures in Ukraine are not an isolated event, but part of a much broader agenda driven by global elites. There is a connection between Wall Street, perpetual war, the push for conflict with Iran, and the collapse of trust in Western institutions. With the rise of the BRICS and the weakening dollar, the American empire is reaching the breaking point.
President Trump is the creature of the top 1%. The interests of Wall Street as well as the City of London banks  are intimately linked while the CIA, the Mossad, and MI6 are all closely integrated.

There are other elites that may not be part of the banking elite but are nevertheless interested in subversion and destruction and they are advocates for perpetual conflict on the assumption that US will  benefit from it. The truth is that US failed miserably in Ukraine. That is abundantly clear. There is no winning anything in Ukraine now. Russia has come out on top. Russia will end this conflict on its own terms.

There is no path to victory in Ukraine. For years, the West has poured billions into a war it never had the leverage to win while ignoring the quiet shift in global power. Russia, with China quietly backing it, has outlasted Western expectations. The bigger issue now is not just about Ukraine. It is about whether US leadership will finally accept multipolar reality or if they will double down out of pride and push the world into even greater danger. And while the governments in Europe are going to change, the globalist elites that are part of the top 1% are losing badly in that arena.