CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES. AN INTENSE RIVALRY SPANNING EVERY SECTOR, WITH CHINA DICTATING THE TERMS OF THE CHALLENGE

Foreword

Recent visits to Beijing by Trump and to Washington by Xi Jinping and a more favourable geopolitical environment have given China more strategic space to advance its vision.

The US is in the grip of a collective delusion regarding China. There is a vast gap between American media perceptions and the startling reality on the ground in China. From the world's most advanced 5G infrastructure and high-speed rail networks to an efficient government, China has already become the global leader, and the gap is only widening. The United States is trapped in a major illusion: visiting China for the first time shatters every Western stereotype. It is time to face reality.

Background

On Sept. 3, 2025, China celebrated the 80th anniversary of its victory over Japan by staging a carefully choreographed event in which 26 world leaders were offered a podium view of Beijing’s impressive military might.

The show of strength was deliberate and reignited a debate in Western media over whether a China-centric “new world order” is to replace the US-dominated international “rules-based order”.

But we are already there. The US still has a big role in it, but a new world order has begun  and as it develops, it will look increasingly different than what it's replacing.

Global history can be understood as the rise and fall of different orders, defined as a given era's dominant power relations and attendant institutions and norms. The bipolar world of two competing superpowers, the Soviet Union and the US marked the period from 1945 to 1991.

The fall of the Soviet Union was the beginning of a brief period, from 1991 to 2008, of a unipolar world centred on US global dominance, military power and economic might. With the retreat of global communism, the US increased its influence through institutions such as the World Trade Organization, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

It did not last long in the face of a long war on terrorism, the fiasco of the invasion of Iraq, the long occupation of Afghanistan and finally the 2008 global financial crisis that undermined US strength and weakened domestic support for Washington's role as the world's policeman.

Current situation

In terms of global influence, according to a Pew Research data, the US is losing ground while China is gaining: favourable views of the US are dropping while China's favourability is rising.

A Carnegie Endowment study found that nearly 2/3 of Americans themselves say China's power now equals or exceeds that of the US. When it comes to trade, the US is no longer the centre of gravity. Two decades ago, the US was the leading trading partner for most of the world. Today, China is a top trading partner for over 120 countries.

According to the latest IMF World Economic Outlook data, China's GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is massively larger. China's PPP adjusted GDP has reached a staggering 44 trillion. The United States is sitting at 32 trillion.

As for infrastructure China's high-speed rail network exceeds 50,000 km accounting for roughly 2/3 of the world's total network. The US has zero operational high-speed rail. As for connectivity China has installed over 4,83 million 5G base stations with 5G networks covering 96% of their population.

China has over 1 billion 5G subscribers. Western cities are still struggling with dead zones on the subway while Chinese cities are running fully integrated smart grids with AI and cloud computing. Their modernity isn't just in advance of the West: it's a completely different century.

The centre of the world is no longer the West

China is a very rich nation traditionally and historically,  also having great ability, great skill, great belief in itself, and was able to lift 800 million people out of poverty, to build highways and roads that are better than anything in the West, and much faster trains.

The Western mind always has the West at the centre of it. But going to China you realize that actually the West is not the centre of the world any more. China's modernity now is well in advance of anything in the West. 

China's return to global prominence

China has emerged as a central actor reshaping the global order. From a developing nation to the world’s largest economy, its rise is not merely economic: it is geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geostrategic.

Under Xi Jinping, Beijing has pursued a long-term strategy to challenge Western hegemony, particularly the influence of the US, and to assert itself as a global power capable of defining international rules.

Today, China’s foreign policy is far more assertive than during the Cold War or Maoist era. It seeks to construct a multipolar world where China occupies a central position economically, militarily, and culturally, combining national sovereignty with global influence.

Understanding China's modern geopolitics requires examining the “Chinese Dream” (Zhong Meng), announced by Xi Jinping in 2013. This concept revolves around the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, restoring China to its historical status as a central global power after the “century of humiliation” (1839–1949).

Protecting territorial integrity is central to China’s foreign policy. Beijing views regions such as Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong as non-negotiable, both symbolically and strategically.

China aims to establish hegemonic influence in East Asia, gradually replacing US dominance. This goal is pursued through economic leverage and targeted military pressure.

Launched in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the largest infrastructure and investment project in modern history, encompassing over 140 countries. It includes ports, railways, highways, pipelines, and digital networks, creating a global economic network centred on China.

The initiative’s objectives are twofold: 1.integrate Eurasian economies under China’s leadership; 2.build structural dependency of partner countries, using economic infrastructure as a tool of geopolitical influence.

BRI thus serves both economic and strategic purposes, consolidating China’s role as a central hub of global trade.

China-US Rivalry. A new Cold War?

The China-US competition defines global dynamics. It is not a conventional war but a systemic rivalry spanning economics, technology, military, and ideology. The US criticizes China for unfair trade practices, Intellectual Property (IP) theft, and digital authoritarianism, while Beijing frames US actions as containment and champions a multipolar global order.

The rivalry manifests in:

-Technology: semiconductor control, AI, and 5G networks

-Maritime dominance: South China Sea and Taiwan Strait

-Ideology: liberal democracy versus efficient authoritarianism

This emerging “New Cold War” reshapes Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe.

China's Challenges

Despite its strength, China faces structural challenges that could limit its geopolitical ascent:

-Real estate crises

-Ageing population and shrinking workforce

-Residual technological dependence in critical sectors

-Diplomatic isolation due to assertive or aggressive policies

However, China’s capacity for long-term planning and adaptability remains a key strength. Xi Jinping’s roadmap extends to 2049, with milestones in modernization and national rejuvenation.

China Between Hegemony and Global Balance

China’s contemporary geopolitics combine ambition and prudence, tradition and innovation. Beijing does not merely compete with the West; it seeks to reshape the world according to Chinese logic, based on economic interconnection, state centrality, and political stability.

China represents the most profound systemic challenge of the 21st century, not only for its demographic and economic potential but for proposing an alternative modernity model. The outcome of this strategic contest between multipolarity and renewed bipolarity will determine the future of global order.

History suggests that rising powers inevitably challenge existing hegemons; in the 21st century, we may witness the definitive transition from American predominance to the "Chinese century."

China and Russia

Never before in human history have we had two powers of the size, the scale, and reach of US and China confronting each other in the way that they are today.

The US is a remarkably powerful country, more powerful than any other great power has been in human history. And of course, when the Soviet Union collapsed, the US was left alone as the sole superpower in the world, and few expected China to come up so quickly.

But now China has clearly achieved parity with the United States in the scope and scale of its power, too. And therefore, when President Trump launched tariff wars on all the countries in the world, only one country stood up to the United States, and that was China.

China can no longer be stopped

The actions against China remain consistent. Whether or not you have President Trump or President  Biden, it makes no difference. It's not about personalities. It's about the logic of geopolitics. But is a foolish desire to stop the rise of China, because this is the way the world is going, that China is the dominant economic power, and the demography is on its side.

It's not wise policy to stop the rise of China because China can no longer be stopped. And the only way to stop China is to ask the Chinese government to stop improving the livelihood of its own people. But China still has a long way to go. Its per capita income is way behind that of the United States.

But today, in the contest between US and China, the bottom 50% of the American population hasn't seen their standard of living improve in several decades. And indeed the indicators of people at the bottom are very bad in the US.

Therefore, the logical thing for the US to do is to first focus on uplifting its people, rather than to try to engage in a zero sum geopolitical contest with China.

But in geopolitics, unfortunately, common sense doesn't work because this desire to be number one is so somehow deeply ingrained into the human brain, that's very hard to persuade the policymakers to step back and think: what is the better approach to take?

China and US should step back and reflect whether it is in their larger, long term interests to engage in such a zero sum contest.

US war is a “gift” to China

Every war that the US fights, especially in the Middle East, is a gift to China.

So in the ten years when the US was bogged in Iraq after the illegal invasion of Iraq by President George W Bush, China had is fastest growing years. It was left to grow peacefully from 2003 to 2013. So in the same way, if the US gets bogged down in a third war in Iran, it buys time for China.

Lawyers, Epstein Associates, 86% Disapproval Rating

Historically, up to 80% of US Congress were lawyers, and today it's still around 40%. In the Senate, over 50% have law degrees. They are trained to argue, debate, and litigate. They are not trained to build, engineer, or execute. While the US is litigating the past, China is engineering the future. But it's not just lawyers. There is somebody else who else is running the show: the Epstein class.

The Epstein files consist of over 6 million pages of documents released by the DOJ. They name two sitting US presidents, senators, billionaires, and cabinet level figures as associates of a convicted trafficker. Eight Republican members of Congress actually voted against the Epstein Transparency Act in 2025.

These are the people setting policy, controlling budgets, and deciding the future of 335 million Americans. Not engineers, not scientists, but lawyers and associates of Jeffrey Epstein.

And what are the results of this system? The American Society of Civil Engineers just gave US infrastructure a C-grade in their 2025 report card. Meanwhile, the US Congress has an approval rating in hovering between 10 and 15% in 2026. And a staggering 86% of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing as of April 2026.

Considerations

Neither China nor the US has an interest in undertaking military action against the other, especially in the absence of guaranteed success. Neither China nor the United States can afford a war with the other, and both need an economic relationship. Flexibility is essential in geopolitics and in geopolitical analysis. China and US should step back and reflect whether it is in their larger, long term interests, to engage in such a zero sum contest.

Conclusion

George Kennan said way back in 1949 that the outcome of the Cold War would be determined not by the number of bullets or warships or aircraft carriers or jet fighters you have.

It will depend, at the end of the day, which society creates a spiritual vitality that leads to these people flourishing and growing.

So if George Kennan were alive today, he would advise the US: don't try to get more aircraft carriers but try to focus on improving the livelihood of the bottom 50% of American people.

The world is becoming "Sinicized," not Westernized and we'll see a process of this global Sinicization  as opposed to what we've experienced for a long time which has been the westernization of the world. The rise of China will not be any kind of replica of the western era: it'll be different in all sorts of ways.