Foreword
US President Donald Trump delivered a warning to the Kremlin, announcing plans to supply arms to Kiev via Europe and stating that the United States will impose very severe tariffs on Russia if it does not reach an agreement on the war in Ukraine within 50 days. Trump did not specify whether a ceasefire would be sufficient or a comprehensive peace agreement was needed. Trump also threatened to sanction countries that do business with Russia. As a result, Europe will be forced to purchase American weapons to fight Russia in Ukraine, while Russia's partners risk 100% secondary sanctions.
Current situation
What weapons will be delivered to Ukraine? Trump mentioned 17 Patriot batteries, but the Ukrainians will not receive any Patriot batteries until 2026 or 2027. Meanwhile, the Russians launch up to 800 drones against Ukraine every night. At the production plant in Tatarstan, 1,000 drones are produced every day. And if you consider the economic aspect of the issue, Russia cares little about the sanctions. In fact, the Russian stock market recently increased in value by 2.7%.
Regarding the secondary sanctions against China, India, Brazil, and other nations that are using Russian oil, the intent is that, if they can be prevented from purchasing Russian oil, the Russians will not have the money to continue financing the war in Ukraine.
Well, China, while waiting to annex Taiwan, has already committed to strengthening its support for Russia. So this conflict is also a conflict by China to favor Russia's victory. China does not fear American sanctions, while Europe, in its 18th round of sanctions, has included three Chinese companies. The Chinese have warned: "If you really want to commit suicide, go ahead, but we will react, and we will react harshly. We will knock you out: rethink what you are doing!"
Neither Europe nor the United States have any cards to play with China.
The Chinese have already responded to US tariffs by temporarily halting all deliveries of rare earth minerals, effectively destabilizing America's automotive manufacturing base. You can't produce a car without access to these precious minerals, which are also sold in Myanmar and Afghanistan but all destined for China.
The Chinese don't need the West: they can pull the plug whenever they want. Brazil, on the other hand, has said: "If you don't want to trade with us, we don't want to trade with you, so no matter what you do, we'll cut you off." And India? At some point, India will have to stop wavering, but it's unlikely it will sacrifice its sovereignty to the Trump administration's reckless unpredictability. India is, in fact, a member of the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the G20. These sanctions are unlikely to be applied against the BRICS summit countries.
Is Trump's move a ploy?
It's likely that Trump's move is a ploy. Why Trump is waiting 50 days? The arms supplies will have no impact, and neither will the sanctions. Instead, he may be moving to remove Zelenskyy as president. This is an opportunity for regime change in Ukraine: to replace Zelenskyy with someone else by eliminating Zelenskyy's government and holding elections in Ukraine that will be geared toward producing a government favourable to Russian demands. From there, a move toward a possible ceasefire and an end to the conflict would be possible.
Putin has already stated that Zelenskyy no longer has any legal authority to sign international agreements. The likely candidate to replace Zelenskyy could be General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, dismissed by Zelenskyy after daring to speak the truth, claiming that the war was at a stalemate. If Zelenskyy doesn't agree to resign voluntarily, he could be forced to do so. In a recent interview, Trump declared that Russia will win the war: a statement shocking to Brussels, but true. At this point, for Trump, Zelenskyy is not the solution but the obstacle.
Donald Trump is a narcissist, and his policies are driven by his oversized ego. What he seeks is a political victory. He wants people to say that he, Donald Trump, facilitated the end of this conflict. He wants everything to happen so that he emerges as the conquering hero.
Territorial concessions, duration of the conflict and post-conflict reality
Regarding territorial concessions, there are no concessions to be made to Russia. Russia already owns the territory it occupies. And who is the United States to concede anything to Russia? Russia took the territory by force and will continue to hold it by force. Russia is not seeking concessions. Russia owns that territory; it belongs to Russia, and the United States and Europe cannot prevent it.
The key point is that if the territorial integrity of the United States is untouchable, the same is true for the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation, which currently includes, in addition to Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.
This conflict could therefore continue until Russia physically destroys Ukraine. The Russians are winning, and since Russia considers this situation an existential threat, it will not compromise on fundamental issues.
The key problem, as already pointed out, is Zelenskyy's reluctance to make significant territorial and political concessions. For this reason, the Russians have concluded that it will not be possible to reach a peace agreement with Zelenskyy in power, while Europe is deluding him into thinking he can still win the war. But Zelenskyy is already losing support among the Ukrainian public, with worrying cracks emerging among the political elite.
Ukraine has already lost this war. Europe will get none of its demands. There will be no concessions. Removing Zelenskyy opens the door to the creation of a government capable of legally accepting the surrender terms dictated by Russia.
Moreover, the corruption of Ukrainian politicians, who have purchased luxury cars, villas, and so on, and moved financial resources abroad, is becoming more and more apparent. How quickly will all these people flee when the wall comes down?
The Russians are preparing for a post-conflict reality with a new Ukrainian government poised to take over. This is precisely the situation the world must begin preparing for: the inevitability of Russia dictating Ukraine's future.
European midgets try to act like giants
What role will Europeans play in all this? While Europe is degrading into Third World status due to the madness of warmongers seeking to rewrite history, Germany and the United Kingdom still seem enthusiastic about war. Merz and Starmer met and found common ground precisely in the war that seems to be the only thing they have in common. These are two of the most grossly irresponsible leaders Europe has ever had.
The British always tend to position themselves as the most anti-Russian force to make themselves an important and reliable partner of the United States in Europe. For the Germans, in an economic recession, is this a situation in which they could go to war themselves and perhaps invade Russia, repeating what happened in World War II? It would likely end with Russian T90 tanks in front of the Reichstag, as happened with the T34 tanks in 1945.
The Bundeswehr is not the Wehrmacht: anyway, the Germans are trying to become the Fourth Reich, and no one says anything. While all this is happening, the world is silent, except the Russians. But apparently the Russians aren't allowed to say anything because they're ugly, dirty, and evil.
The good news is that Merz may not last until the end of the year: due to the failing German economy, Merz could face a vote of no confidence. There would then be new elections, and he could be ousted unceremoniously. Starmer could face the same fate: he is one of the most unpopular leaders in Britain, and continuing to support his follies could lead to his downfall.
Meanwhile, Starmer and Macron are considering sending conventional forces to Ukraine to fight the Russians, without realizing that this would trigger a war that inevitably leads to nuclear risk. Britain and France (having decided in Northwood to provide the European nuclear umbrella) are unreliable with either conventional or nuclear weapons.
The resulting collapse of Europe could lead to its disarmament, allowing the United States and Russia to negotiate responsibly because, in the history of arms control negotiations, Europe has proven unreliable. Europe doesn't matter. Europe risks political upheaval. But Russia doesn't want instability on its Western borders.
What Russia wanted was a continental security architecture that would safeguard its and Europe's interests. What Russia wanted were responsible trading partners, peaceful coexistence. But that's not what Europe offered. That's not what Europe is offering. And Europe, in its current configuration, can only survive by creating the specter of a Russian threat that doesn't exist.
Enough with the European rejection of Russian art, culture and literature!
Anna Netrebko, one of the most famous sopranos in the world could not perform because she's Russian! Cancelling lectures on Dostoevsky at universities, promoting virtual bonfires of Russian culture, forcing athletes and artists to renounce their nationality is wrong.
Who hasn't listened at least once in their life to a passage from Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake or Nutcracker? And what about Pushkin and Tolstoy? Or Dostoevsky? Dostoevsky will tell you about love and passion, where it arises, why it arises, why it brings pain, joy, and torment. Tolstoy will describe life in all its breadth, in all its depth, in all its immensity, and he will explain the characteristics, details, peculiarities, origins, and nuances of every person, every feeling. Because this is what Russian literature is: a journey of the soul. A journey into the soul demanding a lot, requiring attention and concentration, but this is the greatest experience you can have, provided you have the courage to undertake it.
Considerations
It's astonishing how quickly Europe has become so insignificant politically, economically, militarily, and culturally. US Vice President Vance said that Europeans have forgotten democracy. In his Munich speech, he asserted: "More than external threats, I'm concerned about the threat from within: Europe's retreat from some of its most fundamental values.... We don't need vassals, we need allies." It's a little sad when your handlers in Washington have to tell you to stop being vassals. It's a sad decline.
War isn't just about technology. War, ultimately, as we see in Ukraine, comes down to battle-hardened men ready to bite the dust, eat mud, breathe gunpowder, and fight relentlessly. And if you can't operate in that environment, you'll lose the war: Europe isn't capable of that right now. Collectively, Europe's armed forces are completely unprepared to wage a high-intensity conflict like the one being fought today in Ukraine.
And this war won't just destroy Ukraine; it could destroy Europe, at least in its current form. Future generations will look back on 2014, the years since, and the folly of continuing down this path, even when the consequences were already known but Europe continued to look the other way.
Conclusion
Putin believes that Trump's determination against him is not so unshakeable and that, if an agreement is not reached in September, the pendulum will swing back, and the US president will place at least part of the blame on Kiev.
Putin assumes that Trump's current stance is transitory and that the growing support for Ukraine is a maneuver designed to increase pressure on him and test whether this approach yields results. But when it becomes clear that this pressure is ineffective, Trump is likely to return to a diplomatic strategy, exerting strong pressure on Ukraine to reach a compromise.
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